Recommended reading

For LSE courses on decision analysis

• Bayesian Statistics: an introduction - Peter Lee
  
  
• Decision Analysis - H Raiffa. The classic introduction to decision analysis. Still worth reading
  
  
• Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research - D von Winterfeldt and W Edwards. Well-written textbook that weaves behavioural research together with an exposition of decision analysis. A must for students on the MSc in Decision Sciences 
  
  
• Decision Analysis for Management Judgment - 3^rd edition, Paul Goodwin and G Wright. A very readable introduction to decision analysis. Starts with multi-attribute evaluation rather than decision trees. Very modest mathematics. Recommended text for undergraduates
  
  
• Decision Synthesis: the principles and practice of decision analysis - Stephen Watson, Dennis M Buede
  
  
• Decisions With Multiple Objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs - Ralph L Keeney, Howard Raiffa. The classic text that elaborated decision analysis to include multiple objectives
  
  
• Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite (2^nd edition) - R Clemen. A solid and comprehensive introduction to decision analysis, much used as a textbook in the USA. Very practical orientation with many case studies and examples. Recommended text for postgraduates
  
  
• Making Decisions - DV Lindley
  
  
• Smart Choices: a practical guide to making better decisions - Hammond, JS; Keeney, RL and Raiffa. Just as it says, a practical (and very readable) guide that minimises the mathematics and emphasises the practical considerations
  
  
• Value-Focused Thinking: a path to creative decisionmaking - R Keeney. A pro-active approach to decision analysis that starts with fundamental values rather than alternatives

Other titles

• The Adaptive Decision Maker - JW Payne, JR Bettman, EJ Johnson. A contingency theory of decision making showing that people trade off accuracy and effort in making decisions, and use different strategies as a result
  
  
• The Art and Science of Negotiation - Howard Raiffa 
  
  
• Behavioural Decision Making - G Wright. Good selection of papers on the topic
  
  
• Business Research for Decision Making - Duane Davis
  
  
• Choices, Values, and Frames - D Kahneman and A Tversky (2000). A selection of classic research papers that arose from the authors’ work on prospect theory
  
  
• Decision-Making and Leadership - F Heller. A dozen authors look at the relationship between leadership and decision making, providing a broader scope for understanding decision making than is found in behavioural decision making
  
  
• Decision Making with Computers - John S Edwards, Paul Finlay
  
  
• Democracy and Decision: the pure theory of electoral preference - Geoffrey Brennan, Loren E Lomasky
  
  
• Everyday Irrationality: how pseudo-scientists, lunatics, and the rest of us systematically fail to think rationally - R Dawes (2001). More provocative challenges from Robyn Dawes, with real examples. The title says it all
  
  
• Executive Information Systems and Decision Support - Clive Holtham
  
  
• Games and Decisions: introduction and critical survey - R Duncan Luce, Howard Raiffa
  
  
• How to Be a Better Decision Maker - Alan Barker
  
  
• Image Theory: decision making in personal and organizational contexts - LR Beach (1990). An approach to describing decision making that does not take classical decision theory as its starting point, so provides a completely different theoretical description. Challenging
  
  
• Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory - John W Pratt et al
  
  
• Investment Appraisal and Financing Decisions - Stephen Lumby
  
  
• Judgment and Choice: the psychology of decision (2^nd ed) - RM Hogarth. A non-technical exposition for decision makers facing real-world issues; shows how decisions can be made better. Good training programme for probability assessment in the appendix
  
  
• Judgment and Decision Making: an interdisciplinary reader Cambridge, 2^nd edition - T Connolly, HR Arkes and KR Hammond. Many important papers here, many new and some written specially for this second edition. Covers the field well, with an emphasis on how judgement and decision making inform real-world affairs
  
  
• Judgment under Uncertainty: heuristics and biases - D Kahneman, P Slovic and A Tversky. Re-prints many of the key papers on heuristics and biases in judgement
  
  
• Knowledge Based Decision Support Systems - Michael Klein, Leif Methlie
  
  
• The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making - S Plous (1993). An award-winning 300-page paperback that is very readable, written for a lay audience. Great examples
  
  
• Rational Choice in an Uncertain World - R Dawes (new edition). A wonderfully provocative presentation of people's failures of judgement and decision making
  
  
• Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart - G Gigerenzer. How using simple rules of thumb can lead to good decisions, but also may mislead us
  
  
• Sources of Power: how people make decisions - Gary Klein. A study of decision making in naturalistic settings that contradicts many of the findings of laboratory research. A worthy alternative perspective
  
  
• Thinking and Deciding (3^rd edition) - J Baron. A good, up-to-date textbook that covers most of the material in this course and more. Recommended buy

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