J Bröcker, LA Smith (2007) From Ensemble Forecasts to Predictive Distribution Functions (submitted to Tellus).

 J Bröcker & LA Smith (2007) Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams. (Draft copy) Weather and Forecasting (in press)

A Guerrero & LA Smith (2005) A Maximum Likelihood estimator for Long-range Persistence (PDF), Phys. Lett. A 355 (2-4): 619-632

I. Golobic, E Pavlovic, J von Hardenberg, M Berry, RA Nelson, DBR Kenning, and LA Smith (2004) Comparison of a Mechanistic Model for Nucleate Boiling with Experimental Spatio-Temporal Data (PDF) Trans IChemE, Part A, Feb 2004, Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82(A), 1-10

J Broecker (2005) On comparing nonlinear filtering algorithms Nolta '05, Bruges, Belgium

A Weisheimer, LA Smith & K Judd (2004) A New View of Forecast Skill: Bounding Boxes from the DEMETER Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts (PDF), Tellus 57 (3): 265-279 MAY

K Judd & LA Smith (2004) Indistinguishable States II: The Imperfect Model Scenario (PDF) Physica D 196: 224-242

F Kwasniok & LA Smith (2004) Real-time Construction of Optimized Predictions from Data Streams Phys.Rev. Lett. 92 (16)

PE McSharry and LA Smith (2004) Consistent Nonlinear Dynamics: identifying model inadequacy, Physica D 192: 1-22

LA Smith & JA Hansen (2004) Extending the Limits of Forecast Verification with the Minimum Spanning Tree (PDF), Mon. Weather Rev. 132 (6): 1522-1528

K Judd, LA Smith & A Weisheimer (2004) Gradient Free Descent: shadowing and state estimation using limited derivative information (PDF), Physica D 190 (3-4): 153-166

D Orrell & LA Smith (2003) Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: The spectral bifurcation diagram (2003) Int. J. Bif Chaos 13 (10): 3015-3027

A Guerrero & LA Smith (2003) Towards coherent estimation of correlation dimension (PDF) Phys. Lett. A 318 373-379.

PE McSharry, LA Smith and L Tarassenko (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? (PDF) Nature Medicine 9 (3): 241-242

LA Smith (2003) Predictability Past Predictability Present (PDF). In 2002 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. pg 219-242. ECMWF, Reading, UK

PE McSharry, LA Smith and L Tarassenko (2002) Comparison of Predictability of Epileptic Seizures by a Linear and a Nonlinear Method (PDF)IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering 50(5), 628-633

MS Roulston & LA Smith (2003) Combining Dynamical and Statistical Ensembles (PDF) Tellus 55 A, 16-30

PE McSharry, G Clifford, L Tarassenko and LA Smith (2002) A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals (PDF), IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering 50(3), 289-294

PE McSharry, G Clifford, L Tarassenko and LA Smith (2002) Method for Generating an Artificial RR Tachogram of a Typically Healthy Human Over 24-Hours(PDF) Computers in Cardiology 29 225-228

PE McSharry, T He, LA Smith & L. Tarassenko (2002) Linear and nonlinear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings (PDF) Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4): 447-461

J von Hardenberg, T Kono, DBR Kenning, PE McSharry & LA Smith (2002) Identification of boiling nucleation sites by non-orthogonal empirical functions (NEF) analysis of thermographic data (PDF), in Proceedings 12th International Heat Transfer Conference, Grenoble, 18-23 August 2002, 3: 377-382.

MS Roulston & LA Smith (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory (PDF), Monthly Weather Review 130 6: 1653-1660.

JA Hansen & LA Smith (2001) Probabilistic Noise Reduction. Tellus 53 A (5): 585-598.

I Gilmour, LA Smith & R Buizza (2001) Linear Regime Duration: Is 24 Hours a Long Time in Synoptic Weather Forecasting? (PDF) J. Atmos. Sci. 58 (22): 3525-3539.

K Judd & LA Smith (2001) Indistinguishable states I: the perfect model scenario (PDF) Physica D 151: 125-141

PE McSharry, JH Ellepola, J von Hardenberg, LA Smith, DBR Kenning & K Judd (2001) Spatio-temporal Analysis of Nucleate Pool Boiling: Identification of Nucleation Sites using Non-orthogonal Empirical Functions (NEFs). Int. J. Heat & Mass Transfer 45 (2): 237-253

LA Smith (2000) 'Disentangling Uncertainty and Error: On the Predictability of Nonlinear Systems' (PDF) in Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, ed. Alistair I. Mees, Boston: Birkhauser, 31-64

JA Hansen & LA Smith (2000) The Role of Operational Constraints in Selecting Supplementary Observations (PDF) J. Atmos. Sci., 57 (17): 2859-2871

LA Smith (2000) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100, in Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, ed. S. Haykin (IEEE, Piscataway), pg 129-134. (Figure 1)

C Ziehmann, LA Smith & J Kurths (2000), Localized Lyapunov Exponents and the Prediction of Predictability (PDF) Phys. Lett. A, 271 (4): 237-251

P McSharry & LA Smith (1999) Better nonlinear models from noisy data: Attractors with maximum likelihood (PDF) Phys. Rev. Lett 83 (21): 4285-4288

C Ziehmann, LA Smith & J Kurths (1999) The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos (PDF) Physica D, 126 (1-2): 49-59

L.A. Smith (1997) 'The Maintenance of Uncertainty' (PDF) in Proc International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course CXXXIII, pg 177-246, Societ`a Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy

M.R. Allen & L.A. Smith (1997) Optimal Filtering in Singular Spectrum Analysis (PDF) Phys. Lett. A 234 (6): 419-428

I. Gilmour & L.A. Smith (1997) Enlightenment in shadows. In Applied nonlinear dynamics and stochastic systems near the millennium, pg 335-340. Ed. J.B. Kadtke and A. Bulsara. AIP, New York

F. Paparella, A. Provenzale, L.A. Smith, C. Taricco & R. Vio (1997) Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Phys. Lett. A 235 (3): 233-240.

M.R. Allen & L.A. Smith (1996) Monte Carlo SSA: detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of coloured noise J. of Climate 9 (12): 3373-3404. Part 3

L.A. Smith (1995) Accountability and Error in Ensemble Forecasting (PDF). In 1995 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. Vol 1, pg 351-368. ECMWF, Reading, UK

J. Theiler & L.A. Smith (1995) Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates (PDF). Physical Review E, 51 (4): 3738-3741. Part B

L.A. Smith, K. Godfrey, P. Fox & K. Warwick (1991) A New Technique for Fault Detection in Multi-Sensor Probes, in Control 91, IEE Publication 332, 1: 1062-1067.