LSE Home Page

CREFSA
Room Y212
St. Philips Building
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
Tel: +44 (0)20 7955 7280
Fax: +44 (0)20 7955 6954

Director:
 Dr Jonathan Leape

E-mail:
crefsa@lse.ac.uk

Home

Research

Resources

People

Links

 

  

Centre for Research into Economics and Finance in Southern Africa

Centre Publications:

Books  
 "Gaining from Trade in Southern Africa: Complementary Policies
  to Underpin the SADC Free Trade Area"
   C. Jenkins, J.Leape, L.Thomas
   Palgrave, London, July 2000  ISBN 0333777778    RRP £52.50
  Sample chapter available on Palgrave website in PDF format.   
This publication presents the findings of research undertaken on behalf of the Commonwealth Secretariat by a team of economists at CREFSA and at the Southern African-based Imani Development group. This research seeks to broaden the debate on regional trade liberalisation in Southern Africa to the role of complementary economic policies in achieving the aims of trade liberalisation. Two key and related themes are the importance of consistency between different aspects of economic policy and the need for stronger institutional capacity to create an environment conducive to increased cross-border trade and investment. Domestic macroeconomic policies are assessed and adjustment measures to counter the potential adverse effects of liberalisation are identified, including tax and other fiscal adjustments. Policy measures to help attract foreign direct investment and to promote exports are examined, together with education and infrastructure initiatives to support long-term growth. The role of compensatory mechanisms in sharing the gains from trade is also discussed.

''Private Capital Flows to Africa: Perception and Reality''
   FONDAD, The Hague, December 1999, ISBN:90-74208-15-0,  price €18.15  
The Director of the Centre, Dr Jonathan Leape, is a co-author of the above book published by the Forum on Debt and Development (FONDAD) in The Netherlands.  The book presents data on the scale and composition of private capital flows to Africa as well as examining the challenges of monitoring these flows.  It considers investor perceptions of sub-Saharan Africa and contrasts these with the experience of governments throughout the region.  Teams from five countries in particular - South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe - undertook extensive local research into private capital flows as part of a joint project with Development Finance International and CREFSA and their findings form the basis of this book.  CREFSA is currently undertaking ongoing research into private capital flows and their macroeconomic impact and policy implications. 
Copies of the book can be ordered from FONDAD.

Occasional Research Papers
RP 11:  'Foreign Direct Investment in Southern Africa', Carolyn Jenkins & Lynne Thomas, October 2002

In 2001/2, CREFSA and the Centre for the Study of African Economies at the University of Oxford collaborated on a new study of foreign direct investment in the Southern African region.  This research analyses the major factors determining the volume and form of foreign direct investment in Southern Africa. It aims to ascertain: (i) the primary motivations for FDI in the region; and (ii) whether the characteristics of new foreign investment influence its developmental effect. By assessing the motivations for direct investment and the extent to which FDI may contribute to growth and development - for instance through new employment and skills transfer – the study seeks to shed light on appropriate policies to pursue in order to encourage higher volumes of FDI and the likely implications for economic development.  The analysis draws on a survey of predominantly European firms with investments in SADC. Issues explored in the survey include: motivations for investment; the market orientation of subsidiaries in Southern Africa; decisions on expansion versus contraction and implications for employment; the ownership structure of investments; the method of entry into the host economy; the impact of economic policy on operations in SADC; and perceptions of country risk.  The survey was conducted by CREFSA and CSAE research staff through face-to-face interviews with senior executives in parent companies.  Funding for this research project was provided by the UK Department of International Development as part of a broad programme of research on Globalisation and Poverty. Further details from: www.gapresearch.org.   The report is available here in PDF format.  For further information on the project, please contact CREFSA Research Officer,  Lynne Thomas.

RP 10: 'Is Southern Africa ready for regional monetary integration?'
Carolyn Jenkins and Lynne Thomas, June 1997
This paper considers whether the member states of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) should move towards greater economic integration through macroeconomic policy co-ordination.    The paper argues that an apparent lack of both real economic and policy convergence implies that Southern Africa is not yet ready for regional monetary integration.

RP 9: 'An analysis of the financial rand mechanism'
Jonathan Garner, November 1994
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of several aspects of the financial rand mechanism.  The paper considers the various components of the financial rand market and attempts to estimate a range for the total market size.  It goes on to use econometric analysis to identify the determinants of the financial rand discount and finds that the difference between South African and US interest rates in an important factor in determining the discount.  The paper also discusses the case for the abolition of the financial rand and concludes with several recommendations for managing abolition.

RP 8:'Determinants of recent direct investment flows to South Africa'
  Jonathan Garner, November 1993
This paper analyses the factors affecting the timing and sectoral allocation of foreign direct investment flows to South Africa in the early 1990's and suggests that political developments have had the major impact on the timing of investment decisions.  The sectoral allocation of investment within the South African economy appears to have been heavily influenced by government trade and industrial policy measures.  The paper also includes a discussion of the theory of foreign direct investment flows.

RP7: 'South African Exchange Rate Policy, 1979-1991'
Brian Kahn, August 1992
Professor Kahn's second paper shows how the Reserve Bank's exchange rate policy changed significantly at the end of the 1980's and goes on to demonstrate that the policy of maintaining a stable effective exchange rate has a differential impact across varying industrial sectors.

RP6:'South Africa's Trade Partners, 1986-1991'
Jonathan Garner, with Lynne Thomas, August 1992
This paper assesses the trends in trade flows between South Africa and its different trade partners between 1986 and 1991. It evaluates the principal sources of data on South Africa's trade patterns and examines how these patterns have changed during the period in question.

RP 5:"South Africa's borrowings on the international capital markets: Recent developments in historical perspective"
 Jonathan Garner and Jonathan Leape, August 1991
 This paper examines South Africa's foreign borrowing, in the form of public and private bond issues and syndicated bank loans, since 1972.  The paper identifies changes in the level and composition of this borrowing and assesses the underlying causes of these changes.  It provides a detailed analysis of developments over the past 18 months and evaluates future prospects.

RP 4: "Capital flight and exchange controls in South Africa"
Brian Kahn, July 1991
Professor Kahn's first paper for the Centre assesses the problem of capital flight from South Africa.  The paper provides estimates of the magnitude of capital flight over the period 1970 - 1988 and considers the economic impact.  The causes of capital flight and appropriate policy responses are then evaluated.

RP 3: "The development of the forward exchange market in South Africa"
Maria Ramos, July 1991
Ms Ramos' paper begins by noting that the losses sustained by the Reserve Bank on the provision of forward cover reached an unprecedented R15bn in 1990.  The paper considers the evolution of forward markets in industrialised and developing countries. It goes on to identify structural aspects of the market in South Africa that contributed to the large losses and discusses the prospects for reform.

RP 2: "The trend in trade credits for South Africa"
Jonathan Garner, December 1990.
This paper assesses South Africa's access to trade finance between 1985 and 1990.  The paper identifies a major shift in the supply of trade credits from bank to non-bank sources and, decomposing the published dollar figures into the underlying currencies, finds that the real supply of trade credits was essentially static in this period.

RP 1: "South Africa's foreign debt and the Standstill, 1985-1990"
Jonathan Leape, February 1991
Dr Leape's paper begins by analysing the origins of the Debt Standstill in 1985.  It goes on to document the details of the three "Interim Arrangements" that set out the provisions of the Standstill and to analyse the changes in the level of composition of South Africa's foreign debt between 1985 and 1990.

DISCUSSION PAPERS
DP 1: "The challenge of sanctions"
Merle Lipton, September 1990
The author of 'Capitalism and Apartheid: South Africa 1910-86' summarises the debate about sanctions and discusses the economic and political impact of sanctions on South Africa. The author argues that South Africa's economic problems are neither unique nor solely due to sanctions.

DP 2: "Successes and future prospects of sanctions against South Africa"
Joe Hanlon, Spring 1990
The co-ordinator of the Commonwealth Independent Expert Study on Sanctions Against South Africa, argues that sanctions have played a critical role in shaping political events in South Africa. The author identifies the political and economic conditions which determine the effectiveness of sanctions.

DP 3: "Financial resources for growth, development, and redistribution: Some lessons from the experience of Sub-Saharan African countries since independence"
Stanley Please, March 1991
The co-author of the World Bank report 'Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustainable Growth' examines the role of financial constraints in the development experience of Sub-Saharan African countries in the 1980s. The author argues that resolving key questions concerning how best to finance development - including how to maintain existing assets, particularly in the public sector, as well as how to fund new investment - is crucial to meeting the human and social objectives of development.

DP : "Testing for purchasing power parity in South Africa in the presence of real shocks" 
G D I Barr and B Kahn, August 1994
This paper, by two Associate Economics Professors at the University of Cape Town, tests for the presence of purchasing power parity in three distinct periods characterised by different Reserve Bank policies and real shocks. The authors use co-integration techniques to show that purchasing power parity broke down during periods of real shocks but appears to have held in the period where there were relatively few shocks and where monetary and exchange rate policies were more consistent.

[Top]

LSE links:

                        Copyright © London School of Economics and Political Science 2000, 2001